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The opening-day curse

Hold the belt through a whole offseason and you get to defend it on opening day. Of the 155 holders that have done that, 16 lost it right there. These are the longest reigns that ended in the first belt game of a new season.

10%of holders who carried the belt through an offseason lost it in their first game back

No. 1 Florida State, 1989 — 350 days with the belt, gone in week one

Florida State carried a reign of 350 days — 9 defenses, won from Clemson on September 17, 1988 — through the whole 1988 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1989: Southern Miss 30–26 Florida State, on the road, September 2, 1989.

Southern Miss kept it 7 days (0 defenses) before losing it to Mississippi State.

No. 2 Swarthmore, 1905 — 343 days with the belt, gone in week one

Swarthmore carried a reign of 343 days — 2 defenses, won from Navy on October 29, 1904 — through the whole 1904 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1905: Pennsylvania 11–4 Swarthmore, on the road, October 7, 1905.

Pennsylvania kept it 1 yr, 6 days (14 defenses) before losing it to Swarthmore.

No. 3 BYU, 1997 — 322 days with the belt, gone in week one

BYU carried a reign of 322 days — 7 defenses, won from Tulsa on October 19, 1996 — through the whole 1996 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1997: Washington 42–20 BYU, at home, September 6, 1997.

Washington kept it 14 days (1 defense) before losing it to Nebraska.

No. 4 Olympic Club, 1932 — 315 days with the belt, gone in week one

Olympic Club carried a reign of 315 days — 0 defenses, won from Saint Mary's (CA) on November 7, 1931 — through the whole 1931 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1932: Stanford 6–0 Olympic Club, on the road, September 17, 1932.

Stanford kept it 35 days (4 defenses) before losing it to USC.

No. 5 Villanova, 1926 — 303 days with the belt, gone in week one

Villanova carried a reign of 303 days — 0 defenses, won from Muhlenberg on November 26, 1925 — through the whole 1925 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1926: Lebanon Valley 30–12 Villanova, at home, September 25, 1926.

Lebanon Valley kept it 7 days (0 defenses) before losing it to Penn State.

No. 6 Auburn, 1984 — 303 days with the belt, gone in week one

Auburn carried a reign of 303 days — 4 defenses, won from Florida on October 29, 1983 — through the whole 1983 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1984: Miami 20–18 Auburn, on the road, August 27, 1984.

Miami kept it 12 days (1 defense) before losing it to Michigan.

No. 7 Wyoming, 1995 — 301 days with the belt, gone in week one

Wyoming carried a reign of 301 days — 1 defense, won from New Mexico on November 12, 1994 — through the whole 1994 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1995: Air Force 34–10 Wyoming, on the road, September 9, 1995.

Air Force kept it 7 days (0 defenses) before losing it to Colorado State.

No. 8 Texas Tech, 1992 — 292 days with the belt, gone in week one

Texas Tech carried a reign of 292 days — 1 defense, won from Baylor on November 16, 1991 — through the whole 1991 offseason, and lost it in the first belt game of 1992: Oklahoma 34–9 Texas Tech, at home, September 3, 1992.

Oklahoma kept it 16 days (1 defense) before losing it to USC.

How often it happens

The belt has been carried across an offseason 155 times, and 16 of those holders (10%) lost it in their very first belt game back. That is actually lower than the belt’s overall change rate per game (20%), which is the honest finding: there is no curse. A program good enough to carry the belt through a bowl season is usually good enough to win its opener.

By the calendar, 58 of the 327 title changes (18%) came in August or September. The earliest point in a regular season the belt has ever moved is August 27, 1984, Miami over Auburn.

The long wait

An offseason is the strangest stretch of a reign. Nothing can happen to the belt for eight months, and yet the team that owns it turns over: seniors leave, coaches leave, a quarterback transfers. The program that lines up in September holding the belt is often not the one that won it. The belt does not know that, and it does not care — it was won by a name on a jersey, and it stays with the name.

That is why the ones on this list sting. A season’s worth of defenses, a bowl win, a winter of holding it, and then sixty minutes in week one and it is gone to a team that had nothing to do with any of that.