Every game that could be a belt game
The next belt game is set; the ones after it depend on what happens first. This is the whole 2026 slate through the lens of the belt: every unplayed game, and how likely the belt is to be on the line when it kicks off.
The games to circle
- Saturday, November 7
- Iowa State at Baylortime TBABaylor 77%100%
- Saturday, November 14
- Baylor at BYUtime TBABYU 60%77%
- Cincinnati at Iowa Statetime TBAIowa State 68%23%
- Friday, November 20
- Iowa State at UCFFS1 · 6:00 PM ETIowa State 63%15%
- Saturday, November 21
- BYU at Kansastime TBABYU 58%46%
- Texas Tech at Baylortime TBATexas Tech 60%31%
- Colorado at Cincinnatitime TBACincinnati 83%7%
- Friday, November 27
- TCU at Texas TechESPN · 8:00 PM ETTexas Tech 84%19%
- Saturday, November 28
- Cincinnati at BYUtime TBABYU 84%33%
- Kansas at Oklahoma Statetime TBAKansas 59%20%
- Baylor at Houstontime TBABaylor 53%12%
- Kansas State at Iowa Statetime TBAIowa State 54%10%
- UCF at Coloradotime TBAUCF 57%7%
How it works: the same 20,000-trial simulation as the season outlook walks every unplayed game in date order, moving the belt whenever the holder loses, and counts how often each game had the belt on the line. Baylor’s next game is a belt game no matter what; the games after it depend on Baylor keeping it; every other game gets here only through a title change earlier in the season. The favorite is from CFBD’s Elo ratings with a home-field bump. Bowl and playoff pairings count once they are on the schedule. Refreshed every pipeline run (last: 2026-11-01); a for-fun estimate, not a betting product. Your team’s own path is here.