Every game that could be a belt game

1. Saturday, October 10
2. Stanford at Notre DameNBC · 3:30 PM ETNotre Dame 100%100%
3. Saturday, October 17
4. Notre Dame at BYUtime TBANotre Dame 84%99%
5. Elon at StanfordACC Extra / ACCNX · 7:30 PM ETStanford 50%0.6%
6. Saturday, October 24
7. BYU at UCFtime TBABYU 70%16%
8. Friday, October 30
9. Baylor at UCFESPN · 7:30 PM ETBaylor 63%5%
10. Saturday, October 31
11. Notre Dame vs Navy12:00 PM ETNotre Dame 96%84%
12. Arizona State at BYUtime TBABYU 87%11%
13. Saturday, November 7
14. BYU at Utahtime TBAUtah 84%10%
15. Temple at NavyCBSSN · 3:30 PM ETNavy 76%3%
16. Iowa State at Baylortime TBABaylor 56%3%
17. UCF at Kansastime TBAKansas 76%2%
18. Colorado at Arizona Statetime TBAArizona State 73%1%
19. Sunday, November 8
20. Miami at Notre DameNBC · 7:30 PM ETNotre Dame 67%80%
21. Saturday, November 14
22. Boston College at Notre DameNBC · 3:30 PM ETNotre Dame 99%54%
23. Duke at Miamitime TBAMiami 90%26%
24. Utah at Arizonatime TBAUtah 70%8%
25. Baylor at BYUtime TBABYU 67%3%
26. Arizona State at UCFtime TBAUCF 67%1%
27. Kansas at West Virginiatime TBAKansas 76%1%
28. Cincinnati at Iowa Statetime TBAIowa State 82%1%
29. UAB at Templetime TBATemple 54%0.7%
30. Friday, November 20
31. Iowa State at UCFFS1 · 6:00 PM ETIowa State 66%2%
32. Saturday, November 21
33. Virginia Tech at Miamitime TBAMiami 96%24%
34. Utah at TCUtime TBAUtah 81%6%
35. BYU at Kansastime TBABYU 51%3%
36. Clemson at DukeESPN · 7:30 PM ETDuke 75%2%
37. Memphis at Navy12:00 PM ETMemphis 59%2%
38. Arizona at Kansas Statetime TBAKansas State 56%2%
39. Texas Tech at Baylortime TBATexas Tech 71%1%
40. Syracuse at Boston Collegetime TBABoston College 70%0.7%
41. Houston at West Virginiatime TBAHouston 68%0.6%
42. Sunday, November 22
43. SMU at Notre DameNBC · 7:30 PM ETNotre Dame 92%54%
44. Friday, November 27
45. Temple at Memphistime TBAMemphis 87%2%
46. TCU at Texas TechESPN · 8:00 PM ETTexas Tech 87%2%
47. Saturday, November 28
48. Notre Dame at Syracusetime TBANotre Dame 98%50%
49. Boston College at Miamitime TBAMiami 98%23%
50. West Virginia at UtahFOX · 9:00 PM ETUtah 97%5%
51. SMU at Stanfordtime TBASMU 92%4%
52. Kansas State at Iowa Statetime TBAIowa State 58%3%
53. Duke at Wake Foresttime TBAWake Forest 60%2%
54. Cincinnati at BYUtime TBABYU 85%2%
55. Kansas at Oklahoma Statetime TBAKansas 79%2%
56. Arizona State at Arizonatime TBAArizona 88%1%
57. Navy at Charlottetime TBANavy 91%0.9%
58. Virginia at Virginia Techtime TBAVirginia 54%0.9%
59. UCF at Coloradotime TBAUCF 64%0.8%
60. Baylor at Houstontime TBABaylor 54%0.7%
61. South Carolina at Clemsontime TBASouth Carolina 56%0.5%
62. Saturday, December 12
63. Navy vs ArmyCBS · 3:00 PM ETArmy 53%1.0%

How it works: the same 20,000-trial simulation as the season outlook walks every unplayed game in date order, moving the belt whenever the holder loses, and counts how often each game had the belt on the line. Notre Dame’s next game is a belt game no matter what; the games after it depend on Notre Dame keeping it; every other game gets here only through a title change earlier in the season. The favorite is from CFBD’s Elo ratings with a home-field bump. Bowl and playoff pairings count once they are on the schedule. Refreshed every pipeline run (last: 2026-10-05); a for-fun estimate, not a betting product. Your team’s own path is here.