The College Football BeltThe CFB Belt
Belt schedule · 2026

Every game that could be a belt game

The next belt game is set; the ones after it depend on what happens first. This is the whole 2026 slate through the lens of the belt: every unplayed game, and how likely the belt is to be on the line when it kicks off.

87Games with at least a 0.5% chance of being a belt game
10Of them on Notre Dame’s own schedule
17Days the belt could change hands, through the end of the schedule
Most likely

The games to circle

Sat September 19100%

Michigan State at Notre Dame · the belt is on the line

Sat September 2697%

Notre Dame at Purdue · chance it is a belt game

Sat October 395%

Notre Dame at North Carolina · chance it is a belt game

Sat October 1092%

Stanford at Notre Dame · chance it is a belt game

Sat October 1791%

Notre Dame at BYU · chance it is a belt game

Sat October 3179%

Notre Dame vs Navy · chance it is a belt game

Sun November 878%

Miami at Notre Dame · chance it is a belt game

Sat November 1460%

Boston College at Notre Dame · chance it is a belt game

Day by day

Every game that could be a belt game

Calendar feed →
  1. Saturday, September 19
  2. Michigan State at Notre DameNotre Dame 97%100%
  3. Saturday, September 26
  4. Notre Dame at PurdueNotre Dame 98%97%
  5. Nebraska at Michigan StateNebraska 66%3%
  6. Saturday, October 3
  7. Notre Dame at North CarolinaNotre Dame 97%95%
  8. Maryland at NebraskaNebraska 83%2%
  9. Purdue at IllinoisIllinois 87%2%
  10. Michigan State at WisconsinMichigan State 51%1%
  11. Saturday, October 10
  12. Stanford at Notre DameNotre Dame 99%92%
  13. North Carolina at PittsburghPittsburgh 88%3%
  14. Illinois at Michigan StateMichigan State 51%2%
  15. Indiana at NebraskaIndiana 89%2%
  16. Saturday, October 17
  17. Notre Dame at BYUNotre Dame 86%91%
  18. Pittsburgh at Boston CollegePittsburgh 79%2%
  19. Ohio State at IndianaIndiana 77%2%
  20. Northwestern at Michigan StateMichigan State 56%1%
  21. Elon at StanfordStanford 50%0.9%
  22. Wisconsin at UCLAUCLA 64%0.5%
  23. Saturday, October 24
  24. BYU at UCFBYU 70%12%
  25. Pittsburgh at MiamiMiami 86%2%
  26. Indiana at MichiganIndiana 89%1%
  27. Oregon at IllinoisOregon 71%1%
  28. Michigan State at UCLAUCLA 53%0.9%
  29. Rutgers at NorthwesternNorthwestern 80%0.6%
  30. Friday, October 30
  31. Baylor at UCFUCF 53%4%
  32. Saturday, October 31
  33. Notre Dame vs NavyNotre Dame 96%79%
  34. Arizona State at BYUBYU 78%9%
  35. Miami at North CarolinaMiami 94%2%
  36. Minnesota at IndianaIndiana 99%1%
  37. Northwestern at OregonOregon 87%1%
  38. Georgia Tech at PittsburghPittsburgh 79%0.6%
  39. Ohio State at USCOhio State 61%0.6%
  40. Nevada at UCLAUCLA 64%0.5%
  41. Elon at North Carolina A&TNorth Carolina A&T 50%0.5%
  42. Saturday, November 7
  43. BYU at UtahUtah 81%7%
  44. Temple at NavyNavy 81%3%
  45. Colorado at Arizona StateArizona State 75%2%
  46. UCF at KansasKansas 62%2%
  47. Iowa State at BaylorIowa State 52%2%
  48. Oregon at Ohio StateOhio State 80%1%
  49. Michigan State at MichiganMichigan 80%0.7%
  50. Sunday, November 8
  51. Miami at Notre DameNotre Dame 76%78%
  52. Saturday, November 14
  53. Boston College at Notre DameNotre Dame 99%60%
  54. Duke at MiamiMiami 90%18%
  55. Utah at ArizonaUtah 76%6%
  56. Arizona State at UCFUCF 50%2%
  57. Baylor at BYUBYU 80%2%
  58. USC at IndianaIndiana 89%2%
  59. Kansas at West VirginiaKansas 58%1%
  60. Northwestern at Ohio StateOhio State 95%1%
  61. Cincinnati at Iowa StateIowa State 69%0.9%
  62. Michigan at OregonOregon 73%0.8%
  63. UAB at TempleUAB 52%0.5%
  64. Friday, November 20
  65. Iowa State at UCFIowa State 58%2%
  66. Saturday, November 21
  67. Virginia Tech at MiamiMiami 95%17%
  68. Utah at TCUUtah 77%4%
  69. Memphis at NavyNavy 57%2%
  70. BYU at KansasBYU 68%2%
  71. Clemson at DukeDuke 67%2%
  72. Indiana at WashingtonIndiana 86%2%
  73. Arizona at Kansas StateKansas State 69%1%
  74. Ohio State at NebraskaOhio State 77%1%
  75. Oklahoma State at Arizona StateArizona State 86%1%
  76. Syracuse at Boston CollegeBoston College 71%0.8%
  77. Houston at West VirginiaHouston 63%0.7%
  78. Oregon at Michigan StateOregon 78%0.7%
  79. Colorado at CincinnatiCincinnati 73%0.5%
  80. Sunday, November 22
  81. SMU at Notre DameNotre Dame 91%59%
  82. Friday, November 27
  83. TCU at Texas TechTexas Tech 86%1%
  84. Temple at MemphisMemphis 82%1%
  85. Nebraska at IowaIowa 76%0.6%
  86. Saturday, November 28
  87. Notre Dame at SyracuseNotre Dame 98%54%
  88. Boston College at MiamiMiami 97%16%
  89. SMU at StanfordSMU 86%6%
  90. West Virginia at UtahUtah 96%4%
  91. Cincinnati at BYUBYU 79%2%
  92. Kansas State at Iowa StateKansas State 54%2%
  93. Navy at CharlotteNavy 83%1%
  94. Arizona State at ArizonaArizona 69%1%
  95. Duke at Wake ForestDuke 56%1%
  96. Purdue at IndianaIndiana 99%1%
  97. Michigan at Ohio StateOhio State 88%1%
  98. Virginia at Virginia TechVirginia 66%1.0%
  99. UCF at ColoradoColorado 50%0.9%
  100. Kansas at Oklahoma StateKansas 70%0.8%
  101. Washington at OregonOregon 66%0.8%
  102. South Carolina at ClemsonSouth Carolina 69%0.6%
  103. Saturday, December 12
  104. Navy vs ArmyArmy 52%1%

How it works: the same 20,000-trial simulation as the season outlook walks every unplayed game in date order, moving the belt whenever the holder loses, and counts how often each game had the belt on the line. Notre Dame’s next game is a belt game no matter what; the games after it depend on Notre Dame keeping it; every other game gets here only through a title change earlier in the season. The favorite is from CFBD’s Elo ratings with a home-field bump. Bowl and playoff pairings count once they are on the schedule. Refreshed every pipeline run (last: 2026-09-16); a for-fun estimate, not a betting product. Your team’s own path is here.