Every way the next four belt games can go
Notre Dame plays, and either keeps the belt or loses it. Whoever has it plays next, and the same fork again. Follow every branch 4 belt games deep — 16 endings, each with its odds — and the question “who has the belt a month from now?” gets a real answer. Notre Dame is the most likely holder after the next 4 belt games, at 54%.
Who holds the belt after…
Branch by branch
Open a branch to follow it-
Notre Dame 100%Next belt game: Sat October 10 vs Stanford NBC · 3:30 PM ET
- 100% Notre Dame keeps it
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Notre Dame 100%Next belt game: Sat October 17 at BYU ABC · 7:30 PM ET
- 84% Notre Dame keeps it
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Notre Dame 84%Next belt game: Sat October 31 vs Navy 12:00 PM ET
- 96% Notre Dame keeps it
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Notre Dame 80%Next belt game: Sun November 8 vs Miami NBC · 7:30 PM ET
- 67% Notre Dame keeps it
- Notre Dame holds the belt 54%after 4 belt games
- 33% Miami takes it
- Miami holds the belt 26%after 4 belt games
- 67% Notre Dame keeps it
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- 3.9% Navy takes it
- 96% Notre Dame keeps it
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- 16% BYU takes it
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BYU 16%Next belt game: Sat October 24 at UCF time TBA
- 70% BYU keeps it
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BYU 11%Next belt game: Sat October 31 vs Arizona State time TBA
- 87% BYU keeps it
- BYU holds the belt 10%after 4 belt games
- 13% Arizona State takes it
- Arizona State holds the belt 1.4%after 4 belt games
- 87% BYU keeps it
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- 30% UCF takes it
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UCF 4.8%Next belt game: Fri October 30 vs Baylor ESPN · 7:30 PM ET
- 37% UCF keeps it
- UCF holds the belt 1.8%after 4 belt games
- 63% Baylor takes it
- Baylor holds the belt 3.0%after 4 belt games
- 37% UCF keeps it
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- 70% BYU keeps it
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- 84% Notre Dame keeps it
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- 0.5% Stanford takes it
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Stanford 0.5%Next belt game: Sat October 17 vs Elon ACC Extra / ACCNX · 7:30 PM ET
- 50% Stanford keeps it
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Stanford 0.2%Next belt game: Sat October 24 vs NC State ESPN · 10:30 PM ET
- 18% Stanford keeps it
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Stanford 0.0%Next belt game: Sat October 31 at Louisville time TBA
- 4.2% Stanford keeps it
- Stanford holds the belt 0.0%after 4 belt games
- 96% Louisville takes it
- Louisville holds the belt 0.0%after 4 belt games
- 4.2% Stanford keeps it
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- 82% NC State takes it
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NC State 0.2%Next belt game: Sat October 31 vs California time TBA
- 81% NC State keeps it
- NC State holds the belt 0.2%after 4 belt games
- 19% California takes it
- California holds the belt 0.0%after 4 belt games
- 81% NC State keeps it
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- 18% Stanford keeps it
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- 50% Elon takes it
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Elon 0.2%Next belt game: Sat October 31 at North Carolina A&T 1:00 PM ET
- 50% Elon keeps it
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Elon 0.1%Next belt game: Sat November 7 vs Hampton 2:00 PM ET
- 50% Elon keeps it
- Elon holds the belt 0.1%after 4 belt games
- 50% Hampton takes it
- Hampton holds the belt 0.1%after 4 belt games
- 50% Elon keeps it
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- 50% North Carolina A&T takes it
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North Carolina A&T 0.1%Next belt game: Sat November 7 at Monmouth 12:00 PM ET
- 50% North Carolina A&T keeps it
- North Carolina A&T holds the belt 0.1%after 4 belt games
- 50% Monmouth takes it
- Monmouth holds the belt 0.1%after 4 belt games
- 50% North Carolina A&T keeps it
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- 50% Elon keeps it
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- 50% Stanford keeps it
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- 100% Notre Dame keeps it
How it works: at every node the holder plays its next scheduled game. The “keeps it” branch follows the holder’s schedule; the “takes it” branch follows the challenger’s, because the belt now travels with them. Each branch’s odds are the win probability from CFBD’s Elo ratings with a home-field bump — the same numbers behind the season outlook and the belt schedule — and the percentage next to a program is the chance of reaching that point, the branch odds multiplied together. Ties are ignored (they keep the belt where it is). Refreshed every pipeline run (last: 2026-10-06); a for-fun estimate, not a betting product.