The belt tree · 2026

Every way the next four belt games can go

Notre Dame plays, and either keeps the belt or loses it. Whoever has it plays next, and the same fork again. Follow every branch 4 belt games deep — 16 endings, each with its odds — and the question “who has the belt a month from now?” gets a real answer. Notre Dame is the most likely holder after the next 4 belt games, at 91%.

The odds

Who holds the belt after…

After 1 belt game

Notre Dame97%

Michigan State2.9%

After 2 belt games

Notre Dame95%

Nebraska1.9%

Purdue1.9%

Michigan State1.0%

After 3 belt games

Notre Dame92%

North Carolina2.8%

Illinois1.7%

Nebraska1.6%

Michigan State0.5%

Wisconsin0.5%

After 4 belt games

Notre Dame91%

Pittsburgh2.4%

Indiana1.4%

Michigan State1.1%

Illinois1.1%

Stanford1.0%

The tree

Branch by branch

Open a branch to follow it

Notre Dame 100%Next belt game: Sat September 19 vs Michigan State NBC · 7:30 PM ET
- 97% Notre Dame keeps it
  - Notre Dame 97%Next belt game: Sat September 26 at Purdue Peacock · 2:00 PM ET
    
    98% Notre Dame keeps it
    
    Notre Dame 95%Next belt game: Sat October 3 at North Carolina time TBA
    
    97% Notre Dame keeps it
    
    Notre Dame 92%Next belt game: Sat October 10 vs Stanford NBC · 3:30 PM ET
    
    99% Notre Dame keeps it
    Notre Dame holds the belt 91%after 4 belt games
    
    1.1% Stanford takes it
    Stanford holds the belt 1.0%after 4 belt games
    
    2.9% North Carolina takes it
    
    North Carolina 2.8%Next belt game: Sat October 10 at Pittsburgh time TBA
    
    11% North Carolina keeps it
    North Carolina holds the belt 0.3%after 4 belt games
    
    89% Pittsburgh takes it
    Pittsburgh holds the belt 2.4%after 4 belt games
    
    2.0% Purdue takes it
    
    Purdue 1.9%Next belt game: Sat October 3 at Illinois time TBA
    
    13% Purdue keeps it
    
    Purdue 0.3%Next belt game: Sat October 10 vs Minnesota time TBA
    
    41% Purdue keeps it
    Purdue holds the belt 0.1%after 4 belt games
    
    59% Minnesota takes it
    Minnesota holds the belt 0.1%after 4 belt games
    
    87% Illinois takes it
    
    Illinois 1.7%Next belt game: Sat October 10 at Michigan State time TBA
    
    49% Illinois keeps it
    Illinois holds the belt 0.8%after 4 belt games
    
    51% Michigan State takes it
    Michigan State holds the belt 0.8%after 4 belt games
- 2.9% Michigan State takes it
  - Michigan State 2.9%Next belt game: Sat September 26 vs Nebraska BTN · 5:00 PM ET
    
    34% Michigan State keeps it
    
    Michigan State 1.0%Next belt game: Sat October 3 at Wisconsin time TBA
    
    51% Michigan State keeps it
    
    Michigan State 0.5%Next belt game: Sat October 10 vs Illinois time TBA
    
    51% Michigan State keeps it
    Michigan State holds the belt 0.3%after 4 belt games
    
    49% Illinois takes it
    Illinois holds the belt 0.3%after 4 belt games
    
    49% Wisconsin takes it
    
    Wisconsin 0.5%Next belt game: Sat October 17 at UCLA time TBA
    
    36% Wisconsin keeps it
    Wisconsin holds the belt 0.2%after 4 belt games
    
    64% UCLA takes it
    UCLA holds the belt 0.3%after 4 belt games
    
    66% Nebraska takes it
    
    Nebraska 1.9%Next belt game: Sat October 3 vs Maryland time TBA
    
    83% Nebraska keeps it
    
    Nebraska 1.6%Next belt game: Sat October 10 vs Indiana time TBA
    
    11% Nebraska keeps it
    Nebraska holds the belt 0.2%after 4 belt games
    
    89% Indiana takes it
    Indiana holds the belt 1.4%after 4 belt games
    
    17% Maryland takes it
    
    Maryland 0.3%Next belt game: Sat October 10 at Ohio State time TBA
    
    4.0% Maryland keeps it
    Maryland holds the belt 0.0%after 4 belt games
    
    96% Ohio State takes it
    Ohio State holds the belt 0.3%after 4 belt games

How it works: at every node the holder plays its next scheduled game. The “keeps it” branch follows the holder’s schedule; the “takes it” branch follows the challenger’s, because the belt now travels with them. Each branch’s odds are the win probability from CFBD’s Elo ratings with a home-field bump — the same numbers behind the season outlook and the belt schedule — and the percentage next to a program is the chance of reaching that point, the branch odds multiplied together. Ties are ignored (they keep the belt where it is). Refreshed every pipeline run (last: 2026-09-19); a for-fun estimate, not a betting product.