Every way the next four belt games can go
Baylor plays, and either keeps the belt or loses it. Whoever has it plays next, and the same fork again. Follow every branch 4 belt games deep — 16 endings, each with its odds — and the question “who has the belt a month from now?” gets a real answer. BYU is the most likely holder after the next 4 belt games, at 28%.
Who holds the belt after…
Branch by branch
Open a branch to follow it-
Baylor 100%Next belt game: Sat November 7 vs Iowa State 12:00 PM ET
- 76% Baylor keeps it
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Baylor 76%Next belt game: Sat November 14 at BYU time TBA
- 38% Baylor keeps it
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Baylor 29%Next belt game: Sat November 21 vs Texas Tech time TBA
- 38% Baylor keeps it
- 62% Texas Tech takes it
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Texas Tech 18%Next belt game: Fri November 27 vs TCU ESPN · 8:00 PM ET
- 84% Texas Tech keeps it
- Texas Tech holds the belt 15%the season runs out here
- 16% TCU takes it
- TCU holds the belt 2.8%the season runs out here
- 84% Texas Tech keeps it
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- 38% Baylor keeps it
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- 62% BYU takes it
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BYU 47%Next belt game: Sat November 21 at Kansas time TBA
- 57% BYU keeps it
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BYU 27%Next belt game: Sat November 28 vs Cincinnati time TBA
- 82% BYU keeps it
- BYU holds the belt 22%the season runs out here
- 18% Cincinnati takes it
- Cincinnati holds the belt 4.9%the season runs out here
- 82% BYU keeps it
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- 43% Kansas takes it
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Kansas 20%Next belt game: Sat November 28 at Oklahoma State time TBA
- 58% Kansas keeps it
- Kansas holds the belt 12%the season runs out here
- 42% Oklahoma State takes it
- Oklahoma State holds the belt 8.3%the season runs out here
- 58% Kansas keeps it
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- 57% BYU keeps it
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- 38% Baylor keeps it
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- 24% Iowa State takes it
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Iowa State 24%Next belt game: Sat November 14 vs Cincinnati time TBA
- 65% Iowa State keeps it
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Iowa State 15%Next belt game: Fri November 20 at UCF FS1 · 6:00 PM ET
- 61% Iowa State keeps it
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Iowa State 9.5%Next belt game: Sat November 28 vs Kansas State time TBA
- 53% Iowa State keeps it
- Iowa State holds the belt 5.0%the season runs out here
- 47% Kansas State takes it
- Kansas State holds the belt 4.5%the season runs out here
- 53% Iowa State keeps it
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- 39% UCF takes it
- 61% Iowa State keeps it
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- 35% Cincinnati takes it
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Cincinnati 8.4%Next belt game: Sat November 21 vs Colorado time TBA
- 85% Cincinnati keeps it
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Cincinnati 7.1%Next belt game: Sat November 28 at BYU time TBA
- 18% Cincinnati keeps it
- Cincinnati holds the belt 1.3%the season runs out here
- 82% BYU takes it
- BYU holds the belt 5.8%the season runs out here
- 18% Cincinnati keeps it
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- 15% Colorado takes it
- 85% Cincinnati keeps it
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- 65% Iowa State keeps it
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- 76% Baylor keeps it
How it works: at every node the holder plays its next scheduled game. The “keeps it” branch follows the holder’s schedule; the “takes it” branch follows the challenger’s, because the belt now travels with them. Each branch’s odds are the win probability from CFBD’s Elo ratings with a home-field bump — the same numbers behind the season outlook and the belt schedule — and the percentage next to a program is the chance of reaching that point, the branch odds multiplied together. Ties are ignored (they keep the belt where it is). Refreshed every pipeline run (last: 2026-11-02); a for-fun estimate, not a betting product.