Who holds the belt when the season ends?
Every program’s chance of owning the belt once the 2026 games run out, simulated from the remaining schedule as of 2026-11-01. Your team’s actual path is here.
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1
BYU
28%
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2
Texas Tech
15%
- 3 Kansas 12%
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4
Oklahoma State
8%
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5
Baylor Holds it now
6%
- 6 Houston 6%
- 7 Cincinnati 5%
- 8 Iowa State 5%
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9
Kansas State
4%
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10
UCF
4%
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11
Colorado
3%
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12
TCU
3%
How it works: every remaining game on every schedule is simulated 20,000 times using CFBD’s current Elo ratings (with a modest home-field bump). When the holder loses, the belt moves to the winner and the simulation keeps walking down that team’s schedule, exactly the way the real lineage works — so a program that never plays the current holder can still show up here through a chain of results. Bowl and playoff pairings only count once they are actually on the schedule. Programs below 0.05% are left off. Refreshed every pipeline run; a for-fun estimate, not a betting product.